Probability

Students study concepts of probability such as random behavior, partition of sample space, expected value, and conditional probability. Coin toss experiments, spinner simulation, and lottery games are a few of the applications. Lesson 1 Introduction to Random Behavior Random behavior is defined based on a coin toss experiment that the students complete. Random behavior is compared to chaotic, lawful, and clairvoyant behavior. Lesson 2 Sample Spaces and Probability Models Coin toss and dice throw are used to explain the concepts of probability model and partition of a sample space. Nitty Gritty: Conversions between percent, fraction and decimal forms. Lesson 3 Empirical Probabilities Students perform coin toss experiments and spinner simulations to develop an understanding of empirical probability. Nitty Gritty: Using algebra to solve problems. Lesson 4 Theoretical Probabilities A four coin toss, dice roll, and spinner simulations are used to develop theoretical probabilities. Lesson 5 Basic Rules of Probability Probability values between 0 and 1 are used to describe certain events, impossible events and likelihood of an event occurring versus not occurring. Lesson 6 Expected Value of Equally Likely Outcomes Expected value is calculated as an average where a numerical value is assigned to a particular outcome. Lesson 7 Expected Value of Outcomes Not Equally Likely Expected value is calculated as a weighted average where the weight assigned to the numerical value of an outcome is the probability of occurrence for that outcome. Lesson 8 Expected Value Versus Outcome Probability Expected value calculations are applied to the lottery. Lesson 9 Expected Value Versus Outcome Value Students calculate the expected value of various lottery games as the jackpot varies. Lesson 10 Final Paper The students answer the question, "Are state run lotteries fair?" Lesson 11 Extension: Conditional Probability Probability boxes and probability matrices are used to calculate conditional probabilities for such topics as free throw shooting, medical testing, and manufactured product testing. Compare this module to traditional course topics in the Matrix of Course Competencies. If one of the lessons has a link, you can preview that lesson. Other modules: Beat Ratios Functions Exp. Growth Data & Graphs Representing Data Finance Geometry Sampling Non-linear Behavior Linear Behavior Sets and Logic Patterns Probability Systems Right Tri. Trig.