December 2009
Public Workforce Team Welcomes New Hires
The Center for Workforce Development has hired five part-time MCCCD Education Representatives to work at the Valley’s four comprehensive One-Stop Career Centers. These representatives will support the centers in their mission to assist Valley residents seeking employment, career advisement, and job training. Representatives work with clients on a one-on-one basis and offer workshops for dislocated, unemployed, and employed persons looking to change careers. Our five new representatives are:
- Donna Davis –Donna comes to us with extensive regional knowledge of workforce and economic development and successful experience fostering relationships between educators and businesses. She has direct experience working with the local Workforce Investment Act Board and partner organizations, and has used a variety of strategies to engage job seekers. Donna is a well-known and well-respected member of the local workforce development community and will bring a multitude of established relationships to her position. She will be working at Maricopa Workforce Connections West Valley office.
- Rick Gould – Rick has experience delivering workshops to job seekers through the Southwest Job Network and, as a volunteer, providing resume reviews and mock interviews. As the Vice President of Gould Intelligent, an IT staffing firm, he has worked with the Phoenix Workforce Connections North One-Stop Career Center as an employer and has participated in some of the IT Job Fairs. In these roles, Rick also has experience providing career guidance and instruction for improving networking skills. Rick will be working at the Phoenix Workforce Connection North office.
- Michelle Keller – Michelle has more than 15 years of experience in human resources. During that time, she was responsible for developing programs, delivering training, and assisting people who needed additional education to find a new job, keep their current job, prepare for a new position or increased responsibilities. Michelle gained additional related experience as a volunteer with the Southwest Job Network over the past several months providing resume reviews to those actively searching for work. She will be working at the Phoenix Workforce Connection West office.
- Diana Potapenko – Diana has experience teaching in a university setting, delivering grant/scholarship workshops, and assisting students with vitae/resume development. Since June, Diana has been working with the Public Workforce team delivering workshops, one-on-one advising, and responding to partner referrals. She has proven herself to be a reliable, responsible, and knowledgeable employee and has won unsolicited praise from One-Stop Career Center supervisors and partners. Diana will be working at Maricopa Workforce Connections Gilbert office.
- Sandra Somers – Sandy is a credentialed coach through the International Coach Federation and a certified Global Career Development Facilitator (GCDF). GCDF certification requires work in a career center. To meet that requirement, Sandy volunteered at ASU over the past year advising students, teaching workshops and assisting with career events. This past year, Sandy also taught workshops for outplaced workers through an RFP with the Phoenix Workforce Connection. Sandy will be working at the Phoenix Workforce Connection North office.
Automation Technology Program Launched this Spring at Maricopa Colleges
The inter-relation of Automation, robotics, and manufacturing is often taught at the community colleges. However, in the Spring of 2010, Gateway Community College and Mesa Community College will begin offering Certificates of Completion and an Associate in Applied Sciences in Automation Technology. Why a program that focuses on Automation? "When we surveyed the employers in the valley, many of them were looking to find ways to automate their process, making them leaner and agile in a difficult economy," said Thomas Reyman of Mesa Community College.
Faculty members from Gateway, Mesa, and Chandler-Gilbert Community Colleges collaborated and culled curriculum from their respective campuses to create a program that would allow students to go to 'open labs' and do components of their studies online. "The premise in creating the new program was to serve students who have skills and want to update them, and, those students who are just out of high school and are interested in Automation and Robotics," said Mike Corry of Gateway Community College.
The program, which is scheduled to start in Spring 2010, will work students through a core of Automation classes in Certificates of Completion and allow them to pursue tracks in Process Control Systems and Programming, or, Electromechanical and Hybrid Systems as part of the Associate program. For more information on these classes, contact Gateway Community College or Mesa Community College.
US Employment Situation
Evidence is growing that the national recession ended some time in the second quarter of 2009. Recent months have seen gains in the index of leading economic indicators, increases in industrial production, declines in inventories, rising productivity, better numbers for housing, widening profit margins, and recovering economies worldwide. Forecasts call for a sluggish recovery due to continued tight credit markets and timid consumer spending. State and local budget concerns and a slow construction sector (residential and non-residential) will also hamper growth. The U.S. economy will not be completely recovered until 2011 or 2012.
Job losses will also continue. As a lagging indicator, unemployment will remain high even after the national economy begins to recover. The U.S. lost 3.3 million jobs in the first 11 months of 2009. This reduction comes on top of an additional 3.1 million jobs lost in 2008. Nationwide, employment has declined every month since January of 2008.
As feared, the national unemployment rate surpassed 10% in October 2009, and currently stands at 10.0% in November. Unemployment is even higher for certain demographics, such as men (11.2%), Hispanics (12.7%), African Americans (15.6%), and 20-24 year-olds (16.0%). The rate for women is 8.6%. When other measures of unemployment and underemployment are factored into the U.S. rate, such as discouraged, marginally attached, and part-time workers, it jumps to 16.4%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is expected to begin falling next year, but will remain above 9% through 2010.
Concerns are now being raised over the prospects of a jobless recovery. Since 1991 this has been the trend. Jobs have taken longer to recover after the previous two recessions because a smaller manufacturing sector can no longer produce the kinds of jobs that used to exist in the post-war period. The nation requires high rates of consumer spending to boost the service sector, but job losses, high unemployment, declining home values, and fear have muted consumer spending.
| Job Growth In Years After Recession End | |||
| 1 Year | 2 Years | 3 Years | |
| 2001 Recession | -0.4% | -0.6% | 1.0% |
| 1991 Recession | -0.2% | 1.3% | 4.2% |
| All Post-War Recessions* | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
| *11 recessions total, not including the current recession. | |||
Although employment growth is still negative nationwide, the rate of decline is decreasing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance peaked nationwide in March 2009, and generally peak eight weeks before economy begins to recover.

Traditionally education, health services, real estate, and consumer spending drive the U.S. economy out of recession - not this time.
Arizona Outlook
Arizona is in the midst of its worst economic downturn in modern times. The state is expected to lag the national recovery by at least a quarter or two due to the lingering effects of an overheated real estate market and anticipated layoffs in the public sector.
From a peak in late 2007 Arizona has lost 291,200 jobs, or 10.7% of employment. In the first 10 months of 2009 Arizona ranks 50th among states in employment growth. In 2008 Arizona ranked 47th. In 2006 it ranked 2nd. Robust employment growth statewide is unlikely before 2011, and employment levels seen in 2007 are not expected to be recovered until 2013 – a six year correction.
Arizona's unemployment rate currently stands at 9.3%. Like the U.S., the state's rate is expected to top 10% before recovery begins. Discouraged workers no longer looking for work, fewer hours per jobs, and out-migration keep Arizona's unemployment rate below the U.S. average.
Statewide, only six industry sectors saw positive employment growth between October 2008 and October 2009 (see table below). Three of these six sectors were healthcare related. Construction, mining, and professional and business services top the industry sectors for job losses. The recession hit Arizona everywhere the state is strong - tourism, retirement, population flows, and high tech manufacturing.
| Top Industries for Employment Growth - Arizona | |
| October 2008 to October 2009 | Percent |
| Federal Government | 3.6% |
| Aerospace Products and Parts | 3.2% |
| Other General Merchandise Stores (warehouse clubs, dollar stores, auto supply stores) | 2.8% |
| Nursing and Residential Care | 1.0% |
| Hospitals | 0.9% |
| Ambulatory Health Care Services | 0.5% |
| Source: Arizona Department of Commerce | |
| Top Industries for Employment Declines - Arizona | |
| October 2008 to October 2009 | Percent |
| Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores | -27.0% |
| Construction - Specialty Trade Contractors | -25.9% |
| Metal Ore Mining | -23.9% |
| Construction of Buildings | -21.0% |
| Construction – Heavy and Civil Engineering | -18.0% |
| Employment Services | -14.7% |
| Services to Buildings | -13.5% |
| Real Estate Rental and Leasing | -12.7% |
| Source: Arizona Department of Commerce | |
Like Arizona, the Greater Phoenix metro area has suffered declining employment, down 11.5% from a peak in late 2007. The unemployment rate now stands at 8.7%. Among metros nationwide Greater Phoenix has suffered one of the largest percentage declines in employment during this recessionary cycle.
The Greater Phoenix region continues to suffer the lingering effects of the real estate crisis. It is estimated that the Greater Phoenix market is overbuilt by an excess of 40,000 to 50,000 homes. Over 50,000 properties in the region are in foreclosure, and 54% of homes are “underwater”, or their owners owe more on the home than the home is worth. According to the National Association of Realtors, the median sales price of an existing single-family home in Greater Phoenix was $142,700 in the third quarter of 2009. This is down 46.8% from 2006. New home construction has all but ceased in the Greater Phoenix market. In the first 10 months of 2009 building permits were issued for 7,857 new housing units. In 2005 62,617 permits were issued.
Arizona's weakened economy has resulted in a $1.8 billion state budget deficit in 2010, even with the addition of Federal stimulus funds. The state's three major revenue sources are all in decline - sales taxes (down 31%), individual income taxes (down 36%), and corporate income taxes (down 46%). These three sources account for 90% of Arizona's general fund. The budget crisis will lead to further cuts in state employment which will continue to be a drag on the economy.
| Economic Indicators | |||||||
| Change | |||||||
| Current | Previous | Year Ago | Current/ Previous | Year/Year | Date | ||
| Gross Domestic Product | |||||||
| US | 2.8% | -0.7% | -2.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | Q3 2009 | |
| Employment (in thousands) | |||||||
| US | 130,996 | 131,007 | 135,755 | 0.0% | -3.5% | November, 2009 | |
| Arizona | 2,409 | 2,407 | 2,587 | 0.1% | -6.9% | October, 2009 | |
| Greater Phoenix | 1,710 | 1,706 | 1,845 | 0.3% | -7.3% | October, 2009 | |
| Unemployment Rate | |||||||
| US | 10.0% | 10.2% | 6.8% | -0.2% | 3.2% | November, 2009 | |
| Arizona | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 0.2% | 3.1% | October, 2009 | |
| Greater Phoenix | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 0.2% | 3.1% | October, 2009 | |
| First Time Unemployment Claims | |||||||
| US | 505,000 | 514,000 | 488,000 | -1.8% | 3.5% | Week Ending November 7th | |
| Arizona | 7,103 | 6,940 | 5,842 | 2.3% | 21.6% | Week Ending November 7th | |
| Continued Unemployment Claims | |||||||
| US | 5,613,000 | 5,651,000 | 3,933,000 | -0.7% | 42.7% | Week Ending November 7th | |
| Arizona | 98,785 | 100,626 | 48,683 | -1.8% | 102.9% | Week Ending November 7th | |
| Consumer Price Index | |||||||
| US | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.1 | 1.1 | October, 2009 | |
| Consumer Confidence | |||||||
| US | 49.5 | 48.7 | 38.8 | 0.8 | 10.7 | October, 2009 | |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | |||||||
| US | 347,483 | 342,783 | 353,641 | 1.4% | -1.7% | October, 2009 | |
| Taxable Sales ($ millions) | |||||||
| Arizona | 3,530 | 3,363 | 4,017 | 5.0% | -12.1% | September, 2009 | |
| Food Stamp Recipients | |||||||
| US | 36,491,920 | 35,851,179 | 29,459,942 | 1.8% | 23.9% | August, 2009 | |
| Arizona | 919,778 | 894,269 | 675,664 | 2.9% | 36.1% | August, 2009 | |
| Median Sale Price, Existing Single Family Homes | |||||||
| US | $177,900 | $174,200 | $200,400 | 2.1% | -11.2% | Q3 2009 | |
| Greater Phoenix | $142,700 | $131,100 | $185,100 | 8.8% | -22.9% | Q3 2009 | |
| Housing Permits | |||||||
| US | 46,500 | 51,300 | 63,700 | -9.4% | -27.0% | October, 2009 | |
| Arizona | 1,111 | 1,180 | 1,271 | -5.8% | -12.6% | October, 2009 | |
| Greater Phoenix | 757 | 714 | 932 | 6.0% | -18.8% | October, 2009 | |
| Commercial Vacancy Rates - Greater Phoenix | |||||||
| Industrial | 15.8% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 0.6% | 3.7% | Q2 2009 | |
| Office | 24.2% | 23.7% | 17.1% | 0.5% | 7.1% | Q2 2009 | |
| Retail | 10.9% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 0.4% | 4.0% | Q2 2009 | |
For more information on the state economy, click here
About Us
The Center for Workforce Development works to ensure that the Greater Phoenix economy has a skilled labor pool which meets the existing and emerging workforce needs of the employer community. You can visit us at www.maricopa.edu/workforce